The latest data do not contain much evidence of a pre-election giveaway in Brazil but President Rousseff’s slide in the opinion polls since the start of the year, coupled with a stagnant economy and a drop in consumer spending in Q1, has raised the chances that the government could loosen the purse strings ahead of October’s vote. A fiscal giveaway would presumably help to secure Dilma’s return to office. But the costs to the economy over the longer term could be significant.
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