Comments this week from MPC members strengthen our view that the repo rate will be hiked by 25bp (to 4.25%) in the next policy meeting in June. That view is now also shared by the consensus, which has also moved closer to our end-2022 and end-2023 forecasts. But as it stands, our views are still a touch more hawkish. And crucially, the chances of rates rising by more than even we expect appear to be growing.
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