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Earnings may be the next headwind for the S&P 500

Despite its struggles yesterday, we think the S&P 500 may have some way further to fall as the economy slows and more companies struggle to meet optimistic earnings expectations. Note: We’ll be discussing the markets outlook in light of Wednesday’s sell-off in a 20-minute online briefing on 19th May at 10:30 ET/ 15:30 BST. Register now.
Thomas Mathews Markets Economist
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More from Global Markets

Global Markets Update

Answering your questions on our market forecasts

We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several of the questions that we received but didn’t have time to answer during the event.

24 June 2022

Global Markets Update

We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields

We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening cycles in many DMs will be more front-loaded and aggressive than we previously thought. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

22 June 2022

Global Markets Update

Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities

We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

20 June 2022

More from Thomas Mathews

Global Markets Update

Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500

The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening.

18 May 2022

Capital Daily

Weighing up the outlook for the S&P 500

History suggests the S&P 500 might recover quite quickly once it reaches its trough, but that may be a way off yet and still-rosy earnings expectations could be an obstacle.

13 May 2022

Asset Allocation Update

Lessons for markets from the rapid 1994/95 rate hikes

The struggles of both bonds and equities during the Fed’s rapid hiking cycle of 1994/95 may provide a warning to investors today. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

6 May 2022
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