Earnings expectations and the outlook for DM equities

We think that there is more scope for earnings expectations to improve outside, than inside, the US. In both cases, though, we are not anticipating upward revisions on the scale seen over the past year.
Franziska Palmas Markets Economist
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EM Markets Chart Book

We think China’s equities will continue to struggle

Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Markets Update

Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z

While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the UK. This is based on our view that inflation will prove more persistent in the former than in the latter two.

17 September 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength

We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years.

17 September 2021

More from Franziska Palmas

Capital Daily

Assessing the risks to our positive view of E-Z peripheral bonds

While the risk that political events cause an increase in euro-zone “peripheral spreads” has arguably diminished recently, a withdrawal of ECB support has become more of a concern. On balance though, we still expect peripheral spreads will remain very low in the coming years.

28 June 2021

Capital Daily

BoE policy may ultimately lead to a steeper UK yield curve

The yield of 10-year Gilts fell after the Bank of England kept its policy settings and forward guidance unchanged at its meeting today. However, we suspect that if the Bank continues to look through strong growth and activity data, investors may start to anticipate higher inflation further ahead in time, causing long-term Gilt yields to rise and the yield curve to steepen.

24 June 2021

Global Markets Update

We expect yields to rise less in Germany than in the US

The yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds have moved in lockstep since the latest Fed meeting, but we doubt that this will continue. While we expect the Treasury yield to rise sharply between now and the end of 2022, we think that the Bund yield will increase only gradually.

18 June 2021
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