Surge in shipping costs adds to near-term price pressure

The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of developments that point to a rise in inflation over the first half of this year.
Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist
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Will labour shortages spur productivity gains?

One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on cheap labour. However, any gains in productivity may not materialise quickly enough to prevent central banks from reacting to the pick-up in wage growth. In view of the wider interest, we have also made this Global Economics Focus available to clients of our Long Run Service.

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Renewed restrictions: inflationary or disinflationary?

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Scar free? The implications of a full economic recovery

While the consensus has become more optimistic about the near-term recovery, most analysts – and the majority of central banks – still believe that the pandemic will leave a legacy of lower global output over the long term. We disagree. And if we’re right, there will be profound consequences for everything from the future path of GDP to the outlook for inflation and the public finances.

21 May 2021

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Four questions (answers) on r/Wallstreetbets

The volatility caused by retail investors co-ordinated on the r/Wallstreetbets forum does not pose a direct threat to the global economy, but it does illustrate some of the financial vulnerabilities that can stem from ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies. In this Update we answer four important questions about the events of the past week.

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Risks to our upbeat view stem mainly from the virus

Our GDP forecasts for this year sit some way above the rest of the market. The greatest risks to this upbeat view stem from unanticipated shifts in the virus and the fight against it, rather than the more orthodox macro events that typically derail forecasts.

13 January 2021
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