China’s rebound failing to rescue the global economy

China’s economic rebound has been about as v-shaped as one could reasonably hope for – but it isn’t boosting growth elsewhere.
Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist
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Global Economics Update

Indeed Job Postings point to shortages intensifying

We think that Indeed job data are useful and timely indicators of labour demand, and we will continue to monitor them in the months ahead. The latest data support the view that labour shortages are rising, and are most acute in the US, Australia, and Canada.

18 October 2021

Global Economics Chart Book

Shortages limiting growth and boosting inflation

With shortages of goods and labour still dominating the news, and following our Focus research into global shortages, we have added a new page to the Global Economics Chart Book to monitor their evolution. While the global economy has continued to grow at a fairly healthy pace, businesses are reporting that shortages are limiting growth, particularly in advanced economies. Suppliers’ delivery times have continued to lengthen, backlogs of work are mounting and congestion at ports has increased. Most of the shortages should begin to ease in the year ahead, but shortages of labour could be relatively persistent. Staffing issues seem most pronounced in the US and UK, implying that the risk of sustained above-target inflation is also greatest in those economies.

14 October 2021

Global Inflation Watch

Shortages skew inflation risks to the upside

Inflation is set to stay higher for longer than we previously envisaged due to surging energy prices and goods shortages. The boost from energy will go into reverse next year due to base effects and lower oil and gas prices. Goods shortages are worsening and will persist for some time given lean inventories, pandemic-related shutdowns in Asia, and strong demand for imported goods. These pressures should start to ease next year. But there is a risk that the shortages trigger a more persistent pick-up in price pressures, particularly when labour is also in short supply. Staff shortages are most pronounced in the US and intensifying rapidly in the UK and Canada. In all, while we expect inflation to ease back to below target in the next couple of years in Japan and Europe, it will settle at higher rates in the US.

11 October 2021

More from Neil Shearing

Long Run Update

Scar free? The implications of a full economic recovery

While the consensus has become more optimistic about the near-term recovery, most analysts – and the majority of central banks – still believe that the pandemic will leave a legacy of lower global output over the long term. We disagree. And if we’re right, there will be profound consequences for everything from the future path of GDP to the outlook for inflation and the public finances.

21 May 2021

Global Economics Update

Four questions (answers) on r/Wallstreetbets

The volatility caused by retail investors co-ordinated on the r/Wallstreetbets forum does not pose a direct threat to the global economy, but it does illustrate some of the financial vulnerabilities that can stem from ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies. In this Update we answer four important questions about the events of the past week.

1 February 2021

Global Economics Update

Surge in shipping costs adds to near-term price pressure

The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of developments that point to a rise in inflation over the first half of this year.

19 January 2021
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