Weighing up the prospects for the NOK

We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative prospects for monetary policy in Norway and the euro-zone.
Bethany Beckett Assistant Economist
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We anticipate that the rand will remain weak

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1 December 2021

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26 November 2021

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Continued dollar rally looks increasingly likely

The US dollar is set to end another week higher against nearly all major currencies. To a large extent, this latest rally appears to be driven by the rise in short-term government bond yields in the US relative to other major economies, notably the euro-zone. And today’s news about renewed lockdowns in parts of Europe has reinforced growing concerns about the pace of the global economic recovery. Given our view that global growth will continue to slow and inflationary pressures in the US will prove more sustained than widely anticipated, the backdrop remains favourable for the dollar to strengthen further. Indeed, the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting (due Wednesday) could lend support to this view.

19 November 2021

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US payrolls and Treasury yields

Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long.

2 July 2021

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We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm

US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform Treasuries only very slightly.

22 June 2021

Capital Daily

DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar

We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over the next few years. This underpins our forecast for the US dollar to strengthen against most currencies.

14 June 2021
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