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Weighing up the prospects for the NOK

We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative prospects for monetary policy in Norway and the euro-zone.
Bethany Beckett Assistant Economist
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FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar struggles despite equity sell-off

After another volatile few days across financial markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. Given the renewed falls in “risky” assets, that is arguably somewhat surprising: the dollar generally does well when risk sentiment worsens. The simplest explanation, as we suggested last week, is that currency markets tend to mean revert, especially following large and rapid moves. After its recent rally, the dollar was due a pause. The key question now is how long that pause lasts. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

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FX Markets Update

CEE currencies face external and domestic headwinds

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More from Bethany Beckett

Capital Daily

US payrolls and Treasury yields

Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long.

2 July 2021

Capital Daily

We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm

US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform Treasuries only very slightly.

22 June 2021

Capital Daily

DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar

We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over the next few years. This underpins our forecast for the US dollar to strengthen against most currencies.

14 June 2021
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