With the Ukraine war and pandemic-related prices pressures still much stronger than anticipated, we think the ECB will not want to wait much longer before beginning to raise interest rates. Our new forecast is for three 25bp rate hikes this year and five next, bringing the deposit rate to 1.5% by end-2023.
Euro-zone Drop-In (31st March, 09:00 EDT/14:00 BST): Is Europe at risk of recession? Join our Europe and Markets economists for this 20-minute briefing this Thursday about war, inflation, supply chain disruptions and what this could all mean for the ECB. Register here.
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