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Deal or no deal, Iran’s oil output set to rise this year

A revival of the nuclear deal with Iran would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted, boosting the country’s oil production and weighing on prices. By contrast, while we still expect Iranian output to increase if a deal isn’t agreed, we think this would probably lead to a higher risk premium in the oil price.
Samuel Burman Assistant Commodities Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks fell last week as refineries raised production of petroleum products. However, refineries will probably struggle to raise output much further, with many of them operating near capacity. This, along with more strategic reserve releases, should put a floor under commercial crude stocks.

29 June 2022

Energy Update

Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy

The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up further, but for now we still see Brent crude prices ending 2022 at $100 per barrel. The cap may also be effective at reducing the Russian government’s tax revenues. We don’t think a cap on the price of Urals crude would need to be too far below $80pb (from $90pb currently) to push Russia’s budget into a deficit. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Commodities Overview and Emerging Europe Services.  

28 June 2022

Energy Update

OPEC+ to change tack from September

Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a more liberal approach and allow the few members with spare capacity to produce more. This is one reason why we forecast that the Brent oil price will ease back to around $100 per barrel by year end. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Middle East and North Africa service.

23 June 2022

More from Samuel Burman

Energy Update

OPEC impasse: what next?

The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC+ output in the coming months and what they would mean for oil prices.

6 July 2021

Energy Update

Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub

Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large part because of higher production.

28 June 2021

Commodities Update

Timberrrrrrrr...

Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive.

23 June 2021
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