Markets still overstating pace of tightening (Jun 10)

Marek Belka was recently sworn in as the new President of the National Bank of Poland, and his impressive credentials as a former head of the IMF’s European Department make him a safe pair of hands who will play well with the markets. However, the bigger picture is that his appointment is unlikely to prompt a marked shift in the bias of the Council. With growth set to remain solid but unspectacular over the coming years, and inflation pressures still relatively benign, Mr. Belka should have a quiet start to his new role. We now expect interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50% throughout this year, and to rise to just 4.00% by end-2011.