There are encouraging signs that virus outbreaks in Central & Eastern Europe have passed the worst, which has allowed restrictions to be eased in some countries and activity to recover. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Health Ministry has started to include asymptomatic cases in its daily COVID-19 statistics, which reveals that the country’s outbreak is among the worst in the world. But in more positive news, there is further evidence that the Turkish central bank’s recent orthodox policy shift is the real deal. This should help to cool credit growth and we think that the rally in the lira has further to run.
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