Strains in Turkey’s balance of payments persist and recent developments have done little to alter our view that the risk of another currency crisis is rising. Meanwhile, a ruling last week by the German constitutional court (Karlsruhe) has raised the spectre of Poland and Hungary adopting a more hostile stance towards the European Commission. Finally, there are growing concerns that Russia is lifting its coronavirus containment measures too quickly, with potentially important long-term implications for the economy and domestic politics.
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