Turkey’s domestic recovery & Hungary’s new super bond

Turkey’s domestic recovery & Hungary’s new super bond

GDP and inflation figures released out of Turkey this week provided familiar signs that growth is increasingly unbalanced and we think that the central bank will ultimately be forced to reverse its easing cycle later next year. Meanwhile, demand for Hungary’s new “super government bond” has been strong but it hasn’t resulted in the rise in household savings that many had expected and we think that its potential dampening effect on consumption is overstated.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics

This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to inflation and falls in the lira, Hungary’s central bank tightened policy further this week amid signs that officials across Central Europe are taking the inflation fight more seriously and becoming less tolerant of currency weakness. Elsewhere, the early signs are that a new grand coalition in Romania does not have the appetite for much-needed austerity. Finally, the latest tranche of IMF funds provide a welcome boost for Ukraine’s economy.
Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: how strong is the fiscal picture?

Turkey’s public finances have become more vulnerable to falls in the currency in recent years, although we think the likelihood of sovereign default is very low. Perhaps the bigger risk for the public finances is that the pressure on the central bank to focus on growth is matched by a shift to a looser fiscal stance, causing the debt dynamics to worsen.

25 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength

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Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.)

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Latin America Data Response

Brazil GDP (Q1 2021)

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27 May 2021
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