Russian markets re-open, gas payments & refugees

The resumption of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange this week marked the first steps towards rolling back crisis measures, but policymaking in Russia remains erratic as highlighted by President Putin’s order that payment for natural gas exports be made in rubles. Elsewhere, there were clear signs of the hit to the Central European economies this week as economic sentiment plunged in March. We've already revised down our GDP forecasts and, for now, we're reluctant to cut them further because of offsetting policy support and a potential boost from an influx of refugees.