The worse-than-expected performance of the ruling PiS party in Poland’s local elections last weekend is likely to prompt policymakers in Warsaw to ramp up social spending ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections, cushioning the slowdown in GDP growth. Meanwhile, in spite of last Friday’s announcement that Ukraine has reached a fresh deal with the IMF, dollar bond spreads widened this week. This reinforces our view that the central bank will raise rates further to shore up capital inflows.
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