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Assessing the fallout from the tourist slump

Borders are slowly re-opening across Emerging Europe, but international tourists are unlikely to return to the region in significant numbers for the key summer season. Romania and Russia are the least vulnerable and efforts to promote domestic tourism should soften the blow in Central Europe. But the loss of tourism will weigh on the recovery in Turkey and provide a significant hit to GDP in Croatia and the Baltic States.
Olivia Cross Research Assistant
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More from Emerging Europe

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.)

Turkey’s activity figures for June painted a mixed picture, with industrial production continuing to post solid growth but retail sales suffering a fresh knock. The bigger picture, however, is that the economy appears to have posted another quarter of strong growth in Q2, of 1.5-2.0% q/q.

12 August 2022

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Russia’s month-on-month deflation deepened in July as consumer prices fell by a larger-than-expected 0.4% m/m (in y/y terms, the headline rate eased to 15.1%). The disinflationary impact of the strong ruble is likely to fade but with consumer demand so weak we think the headline inflation rate will fall towards 12% y/y by year-end. We think this will prompt a further 100bp of rate cuts, to 7.00%, later this year. Emerging Europe Drop-In (11th Aug): We’re expecting downturns in Central and Eastern Europe, but how bad could it get? Join this 20-minute briefing on our Q3 Outlook report, including the latest on Turkey, Russia and whether Hungary’s forint has further to fall. Register now.

10 August 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter?

EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the European Commission over the rule of law in Hungary and Poland look close to being resolved, but the risk of funds being halted indefinitely remains high and would weigh heavily on growth in both countries. Emerging Europe Drop-In (11th Aug): We’re expecting downturns in Central and Eastern Europe, but how bad could it get? Join this 20-minute briefing on our Q3 Outlook report, including the latest on Turkey, Russia and whether Hungary’s forint has further to fall. Register now.

10 August 2022

More from Olivia Cross

Latin America Economics Update

What Mexico’s current account means for the peso

We expect that Mexico’s current account deficit will narrow, and could even turn to a small surplus, over the rest of the year as a strong goods surplus outweighs weaker remittance inflows. That should help the currency to strengthen over the rest of the year – our end-2020 forecast is 21.5/$ (from 22.3/$ now).

13 August 2020

Africa Economics Update

Assessing the damage to tourism sectors in Africa

Tourism sectors across Africa, like much of the rest of the world, are at a standstill and any recovery is likely to be slow going. Even if travel restrictions are lifted international tourists are unlikely to return this year, and a big hit to incomes will also put domestic tourism on hold. Overall, we expect the direct hit to knock 2-4% from GDP across the region this year.

25 June 2020
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