Ukraine: At a crossroads

We estimate that Ukraine needs a further $7.5bn in external financing assistance next year. But with the outcome of January’s Presidential elections still uncertain, the source of this funding is not yet clear. With PM Tymoshenko seemingly in pole position to take over as President, we think that reengagement with the IMF is most likely. But if pro-Russia candidate Victor Yanukovych triumphs, Ukraine could turn eastwards. Either way, after contracting by around 15% this year, we think that it could take five years for GDP to return to its pre-crisis level.