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Is the Russian recovery built to last?

A combination of a massive fiscal stimulus and a boost from the inventory cycle should ensure that the Russian economy grows at annual rates in excess of 6% during the first half of this year. But the prospect of a renewed fall in oil prices later this year means that the current pace of recovery is unlikely to last. We expect GDP growth to slow from around 4% in 2010 as a whole to just 1.5% in 2011.

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