Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.)

The Turkish activity figures for January suggest that the economy held up relatively well despite the tightening of COVID-19 containment measures around the turn of the year. And there are encouraging signs that the rise in interest rates since late last year is helping to rebalance the economy.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Update

More to Polish industry resilience than meets the eye

Poland’s industrial sector as a whole has shaken off widespread materials shortages in recent months, in part due to its more diversified sectoral make-up than the rest of CEE. But it also reflects the fruits of recent investments into new production capacity in key sectors of manufacturing, which we think will continue to help Poland’s economy outperform the rest of CEE in the new few years.

2 December 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Oct.)

Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep virus restrictions tight for some time, we think the economy will lose steam in the coming months.

1 December 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be sceptical that this strength will be sustained in the coming months.

1 December 2021

More from William Jackson

Latin America Data Response

Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.3% y/y, means Copom will continue to hike when it meets next month. But the data are not quite enough to prompt a shift from 75bp hikes to a larger 100bp move. Meanwhile, with Chilean core inflation continuing to run above target and optimism about the economy growing, we now think the central bank will start its tightening cycle when it meets next week.

8 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike (to 6.25%) seems most likely, but the probability of an even larger 100bp hike has risen.

7 July 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM credit growth: where do the risks lie?

With the (usual) exception of Turkey, the strong rates of credit growth seen in some EMs including Brazil and Korea are unlikely to be sustained as policymakers have already started (or will soon turn to) tightening policy. The bigger concern is the extreme weakness of credit growth in other EMs such as Mexico and the Philippines, which threatens to further hold back economic recoveries.

6 July 2021
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