Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.)

The much better-than-expected 2.1% rise in Turkish industrial production in March adds to signs that the economy grew in Q1, by around 0.5-0.8% q/q. But the recent tightening of financial conditions means that economy could contract again in Q2, supporting our view that the recovery will slow and bumpy.
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Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2021)

Turkey’s economy put in another strong performance in Q3 but, as the effects of the recent currency crisis filter through, it is likely to suffer a contraction in Q4. The only crumb of comfort is that the downturn is likely to prove less severe than that which followed the 2018 crisis.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

30 November 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid surging virus cases and concern over the new ‘Omicron’ COVID-19 variant, the regional recovery is likely to slow in the coming months.

29 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics

This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to inflation and falls in the lira, Hungary’s central bank tightened policy further this week amid signs that officials across Central Europe are taking the inflation fight more seriously and becoming less tolerant of currency weakness. Elsewhere, the early signs are that a new grand coalition in Romania does not have the appetite for much-needed austerity. Finally, the latest tranche of IMF funds provide a welcome boost for Ukraine’s economy.
Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

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Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed

Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic growth and low inflation than the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US.

20 June 2019

European Economics Focus

Cyprus to outperform euro-zone, but risks remain

Cyprus has now recovered from the economic crisis of 2012-13, which was caused primarily by its oversized banking sector. While a number of risks remain, notably the high level of non-performing loans, we expect the economy to continue expanding more rapidly than the euro-zone as a whole for the next few years, and the public debt ratio to fall steadily.

20 June 2019

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2.

20 June 2019
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