Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Last month’s steep fall in Turkish inflation, taking it back into single digits, was flattered by base effects and the headline rate will rise again later this year. Even so, these figures mean that President Erdogan is likely to keep up the pressure on the central bank for further large interest rate cuts. We expect the one-week repo rate to be lowered from 16.50% now to 12.50% by early next year.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Turkey Consumer Prices (May)

The latest falls in the lira mean that, despite the fall in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 16.6% y/y last month, the central bank (CBRT)will probably leave interest rates unchanged at this month’s MPC meeting. But the CBRT is likely to fulfil the president’s desire for monetary loosening by August.

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