Russia CPI (Jun.)

The further fall in Russian inflation to 4.7% y/y last month, coming alongside recent dovish comments from the central bank, has prompted us to pencil in a 25bp rate cut (to 7.25%) at the next Board meeting on 26th July.
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Emerging Europe Economics Update

More to Polish industry resilience than meets the eye

Poland’s industrial sector as a whole has shaken off widespread materials shortages in recent months, in part due to its more diversified sectoral make-up than the rest of CEE. But it also reflects the fruits of recent investments into new production capacity in key sectors of manufacturing, which we think will continue to help Poland’s economy outperform the rest of CEE in the new few years.

2 December 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Oct.)

Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep virus restrictions tight for some time, we think the economy will lose steam in the coming months.

1 December 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be sceptical that this strength will be sustained in the coming months.

1 December 2021

More from Liam Carson

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Hungary: surveys point to a fresh pick-up in core inflation

A raft of survey data suggests that last month’s fall in Hungarian core inflation is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend – as the central bank anticipates. We expect that underlying price pressures will build over the coming quarters, prompting more monetary tightening.

26 July 2019

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Polish investment boom has further to run

A further sharp rise in EU structural fund inflows will support strong Polish fixed investment growth over the next couple of years. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing.

16 July 2019

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Romania: current account risks mount

Strong domestic demand means that Romania’s current account deficit, which is already among the largest of any major EM, is likely to widen further. This makes the leu increasingly vulnerable to a deterioration in investor sentiment and is likely to prompt more monetary tightening than most anticipate.

15 July 2019
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