Czech GDP (Q1 2021)

The 0.3% q/q drop in Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly better than expected and, with authorities now moving to relax virus restrictions, we expect a strong recovery to take hold in the second half of this year.
Nicholas Farr Assistant Economist
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Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2021)

Turkey’s economy put in another strong performance in Q3 but, as the effects of the recent currency crisis filter through, it is likely to suffer a contraction in Q4. The only crumb of comfort is that the downturn is likely to prove less severe than that which followed the 2018 crisis.   Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

30 November 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid surging virus cases and concern over the new ‘Omicron’ COVID-19 variant, the regional recovery is likely to slow in the coming months.

29 November 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics

This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to inflation and falls in the lira, Hungary’s central bank tightened policy further this week amid signs that officials across Central Europe are taking the inflation fight more seriously and becoming less tolerant of currency weakness. Elsewhere, the early signs are that a new grand coalition in Romania does not have the appetite for much-needed austerity. Finally, the latest tranche of IMF funds provide a welcome boost for Ukraine’s economy.
Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

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Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (June)

The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and there was further evidence of price pressures building across the region.

1 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (June)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a further rise in regional sentiment in June, driven by improvements in retail and services sectors. That said, there is also continued evidence of growing price pressures in the region, with firms reporting higher selling price expectations across various sectors.

29 June 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention

The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile, the temporary export duty imposed on certain metal products in Russia this week is yet another sign that the government is becoming more concerned about the consequences of high and rising inflation.

25 June 2021
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