First quarter GDP data, released by most countries over the past month or so, paint a mixed picture. The highly open economies of Central Europe – notably Slovakia – continue to rebound at a fairly impressive pace. The Hungarian economy also grew at a surprisingly strong rate. By contrast, South Eastern Europe remains mired in recession and the deepening turmoil in Greece only adds to the headwinds now facing recovery. Finally, preliminary Q1 GDP figures from Russia were unexpectedly weak given the strength of recent monthly activity data. We suspect that the GDP data could be revised up in future releases, but continue to think the recovery will falter over the second half of this year and 2011.
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