Recent events suggest that Central Banks across Emerging Europe could be becoming more activist. Last month, the National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 25bps to 7.75%, without an accompanying moderation in wage growth that it had previously indicated would be a precondition for any cut. Meanwhile, the National Bank of Poland also bucked the consensus and raised rates by 25bps to 4.5%. If a move towards greater Central Bank activism in the region is underway, it would add weight to our forecasts for bigger moves in interest rates over the next eighteen months than the market currently anticipates.
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