Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)

While regional PMIs showed that the disruption from large virus waves in the region is easing somewhat, unmet orders continue to pile up, meaning that the resulting shortages further down supply chains are set to remain for some time to come.
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Inflation exacerbates economic crisis in Sri Lanka

The economic situation in Sri Lanka is going from bad to worse, with a surge in inflation undermining the credibility of the central bank (CBSL) and making a debt default all the more likely.

3 December 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

How big a threat is Omicron to Asia?

Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is still room for fiscal and monetary policy to be loosened if prospects took a turn for the worse. Asian exporters could also benefit if a new wave of global infections led to increased demand for consumer goods.

2 December 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger

Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a renewed surge in COVID infections in Vietnam deserves close attention. Drop-In: India – How much scarring will the pandemic leave? 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT, Wednesday 1st December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3535749/63CC51718846E8FF3D871827AC84AF1E?partnerref=report Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

1 December 2021

More from Alex Holmes

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: hikes a long way off

The fact that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, despite the very weak state of the economy, suggests further easing is unlikely. While we are now taking out the cuts we had pencilled into our forecast for this year, we think rate hikes are unlikely until 2023.

23 September 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea Trade (1st - 20th Sep.)

Korean export values are set to have another strong month in September. Large backlogs of orders are likely to keep exporters busy for many months to come.    

23 September 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Can Sri Lanka avoid default?

Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to muddle through for the next few months, it faces a crunch point early next year when more bond repayments are due. A default is now looking the most likely option.

16 September 2021
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