Korea Trade (July)

July data add to evidence that Korean exports are plateauing, after reaching very high levels. While we expect some softening ahead as final demand weakens a touch, a sharp pullback in exports is unlikely.    
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Asia reopens, more hikes in Korea & Sri Lanka

Countries across Emerging Asia are making renewed efforts to reopen their borders to boost flagging tourism sectors. However, the recovery is likely to be very gradual, not least because China (which was the source of around one-third of all tourists to the region before the pandemic) is in no rush to reopen its border. The poor prospects for tourism will weigh heavily on the Thai baht over the coming year and lead to further balance of payments strains in Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, the central banks of Korea and Sri Lanka left interest rates unchanged at their scheduled meetings this week, but we think it won’t be long before both raise interest rates again

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Singapore: no further monetary policy changes in 2022

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened policy today, as it looked past the lacklustre rebound in GDP last quarter and looked to curb further rises in inflation. Core inflation is unlikely to rise substantially next year, even as the recovery regains some momentum. As such, we think the MAS will leave policy on hold in 2022.

14 October 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea on hold, but extended hiking cycle ahead

After leaving rates on hold today, the Bank of Korea gave strong signals of its intent to hike again in November. And given the Bank’s hawkish comments, we are adding another rate hike into our forecast for next year, bringing the total to a further 75bps of tightening in 2022.

12 October 2021

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Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)

Falling output indices in Korea and Taiwan suggest that the virus disruption in South East Asia is reverberating across the region. The end of supply chain shortages continues to slip further out of sight.

1 September 2021

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South East Asia: hit from Delta will be slow to fade

There are some signs that the Delta outbreak battering South East Asia is at least past its worst. But a rapid turnaround in the region’s economic fortunes looks unlikely.

27 August 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea to continue tightening into 2022

We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given the hawkish comments in the press conference, we now think the next hike will come in November. And we expect the tightening cycle to continue well into 2022.

   

26 August 2021
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