We don't expect the Bank of Canada to make any major changes in next week's policy statement (Wednesday, 23rd October). While weak exports and business confidence are likely to have prompted some small downgrades to its GDP outlook, its tightening bias aimed at over indebted households will probably stay. If it could deliver a separate message to businesses and the financial sector, it would be, conditional on the outlook for inflation, to expect the policy rate to remain at 1.00% for at least the next 12 to 18 months.
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