Australia & New Zealand
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International Trade (Jul.)

It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports in July provides some tentative evidence that domestic demand may have softened.
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Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021)

While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns.

2 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year.

1 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q3 2021)

With private consumption now rebounding strongly as lockdowns have ended, output in states not affected by lockdowns continuing to rise, and capital spending resilient, we expect GDP to surpass its pre-Delta peak this quarter already and to keep surprising to the upside next year.

1 December 2021

More from Capital Economics Economist

China Economics Weekly

Inflation fears overdone, more policy tweaks

Chinese consumers appear to have become more worried about inflation recently. But these concerns may reflect a broader sense of unease among households in response to a weakening labour market rather than about inflation itself, which seems likely to remain fairly contained. Policymakers, for their part, still seem more concerned about slowing growth than about inflation risks and have continued to expand their efforts to lower financing costs and boost lending.

7 September 2018

Japan Economics Weekly

Abe delaying retirement, Q2 growth strong

Prime Minister Abe is set to remain in power for another three years following the LDP leadership elections. One of the few substantive reform proposals he has put forward is an increase in the retirement age beyond the current 65. While this would reduce pension spending, it is less certain whether it would increase employment among the elderly. And any change wouldn’t be implemented for a couple of more years.

7 September 2018

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Private Capex Survey (Q2) & Building Approvals (Jul.)

Just 18 months after it got going, the recovery in private investment appears to be running out of steam. This partly explains why we estimate that GDP in the second quarter may have risen by just 0.5% q/q.

30 August 2018
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