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Australia GDP (Q1 2021)

Australia's GDP surpassed its pre-virus level in Q1 but with the vaccination rollout still slow and a fresh lockdown in Melbourne, the recovery is set to slow.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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More from Australia & New Zealand

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

More 50bp hikes coming

We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow concerned that wage growth will be too strong to allow the Bank to meet its target. And the RBA is still lagging behind a number of its peers in its hiking cycle. We therefore expect the RBA to hike rates to a peak of 3.1%, higher than the analyst consensus of a peak of 2.60%.

24 June 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Inflationary pressures keep building

The big minimum wage hike announced by the fair work commission this week will lead to higher wage growth over the coming year. Given the tightness in the labour market and rising cost pressures, businesses will be forced to pass that rise onto consumers. That suggests the risks to our forecast that inflation will peak just above 7% in Q3, are tilted to the upside. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  

17 June 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (May 2022)

The strong rise in employment in May will keep pressure on the RBA to continue its aggressive hiking cycle in the months ahead. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  

16 June 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Economic Outlook

Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound

Japan’s lagging vaccine rollout has finally reached cruising speed, which should allow a rapid recovery in activity over the second half of the year. The labour market may soon be as tight as it was before the pandemic, but we expect this year’s jump in inflation to be short-lived. As such, the Bank of Japan will keep policy loose for the foreseeable future.

7 July 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA to hike rates in early-2023

By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023.

6 July 2021

Japan Economics Weekly

Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing

The economic recovery stalled last quarter as the services sector was held back by virus restrictions and manufacturers suffered from chip shortages. However, with daily jabs now above the government's 1mn target and chip supply ramping up, activity is set for a strong rebound in the second half of the year.

2 July 2021
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