Australia & New Zealand
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Australia GDP (Q1 2021)

Australia's GDP surpassed its pre-virus level in Q1 but with the vaccination rollout still slow and a fresh lockdown in Melbourne, the recovery is set to slow.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to hike rates this year

The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchase programme at its February meeting. And we now think wage growth will rise to 3% by the end of the year. With inflation set to accelerate faster than the RBA has been anticipating, we have brought forward our forecast for the first rate hike from February 2023 to November this year.  

21 January 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten

Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has tightened more rapidly than we had anticipated, we’ve brought forward our forecast for the first RBA rate hike from February 2023 to November 2022. By contrast, we expect New Zealand’s housing market to come off the boil this year which should prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to end its hiking cycle at 2.0% this year and start cutting interest rates in 2023. Our views on monetary policy are more dovish than what’s priced into financial markets so we expect 10-year government yields to be little changed. What’s more, we expect the New Zealand dollar to weaken against the Australian dollar.

20 January 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2021)

The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate in December supports our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchases in February.

20 January 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Economic Outlook

Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound

Japan’s lagging vaccine rollout has finally reached cruising speed, which should allow a rapid recovery in activity over the second half of the year. The labour market may soon be as tight as it was before the pandemic, but we expect this year’s jump in inflation to be short-lived. As such, the Bank of Japan will keep policy loose for the foreseeable future.

7 July 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA to hike rates in early-2023

By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023.

6 July 2021

Japan Economics Weekly

Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing

The economic recovery stalled last quarter as the services sector was held back by virus restrictions and manufacturers suffered from chip shortages. However, with daily jabs now above the government's 1mn target and chip supply ramping up, activity is set for a strong rebound in the second half of the year.

2 July 2021
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