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Tanzania: near-term struggles, long-term outlook brighter

Unfavourable shifts in commodity prices, the effects of drought and a slow rebound in the tourism sector will hold back Tanzania’s economy over the next couple of years. But while the near-term outlook is weaker than most think, President Hassan’s reversal of her predecessor’s anti-business policies bodes well for the country’s longer-term outlook. India Drop-In (8th June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): We’ll be discussing India’s growth, inflation and policy outlook in the wake of the RBI’s June meeting, including what to do about the rupee. Register now.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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More from Africa

Africa Economics Update

Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again

Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming years and a sovereign debt restructuring is likely. Over the medium-term, we're doubtful that the government will be able to push through its ambitious reform agenda. Ethiopia’s growth miracle, in which the economy grew at rates of 8-12%, has come to an end.

10 August 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections

News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s public debt will return to a sustainable path. Meanwhile, investors are on tenterhooks just as much as Kenyan voters ahead of Tuesday’s elections that are shaping up to be a close race. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Africa Economics Update

Kenya: elections no cure for economic woes

Kenya’s general election scheduled for Tuesday is set against a challenging economic backdrop, and no matter the winner, the country’s outlook is likely to remain overshadowed by large macroeconomic imbalances and high public debt risks. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

More from Jason Tuvey

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The further decline in Russia’s headline inflation rate to 15.9% y/y in June confirms that inflation has already passed its peak and we expect price pressures to ease further over the coming months. This is likely to prompt the central bank to cut interest rates by another 100bp, to 8.50%, later this month although the scope for further aggressive easing is limited.

8 July 2022

Africa Economics Update

Ghana and the IMF: big hurdles to debt sustainability

The decision by Ghana’s government to turn to the IMF will help to restore some calm among investors over the country’s poor public finances. But a very large fiscal squeeze is needed to restore debt sustainability and recent protests highlight the political difficulty of pushing that through. The result is that the debt-to-GDP ratio will remain on an upwards trajectory. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

6 July 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Corporate FX debt risks in Turkey, EU fund hopes

Recent plans announced by the Turkish authorities to restrict access to lira-denominated loans to corporates with large FX holdings add to the growing risks stemming from corporates' large FX debts. Meanwhile, Poland and Hungary are moving closer to unlocking access to some EU funds but a lack of progress on reforms to the rule of law means that these are likely to be delayed for some time. A resolution to the dispute may give a boost to the beleaguered Hungarian forint, but it will not solve all the problems and macro imbalances that have made it one of the worst performing EM currencies this year.
EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

1 July 2022
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