Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom has come to an end. Mining countries such as South Africa and Zambia were already struggling. But the slump in oil prices over the past few months means that we expect growth in Nigeria and Ghana to suffer, and Angola to slip into recession in 2015. In each case, currencies are likely to remain under pressure, inflation is likely to stay high and interest rates will be raised. Lower commodity revenues will also mean that fiscal policy needs to be tightened. We do not expect growth in the region to collapse, but it is likely to be sluggish in 2015-16, at around 4%.