Economic recovery will peak this year

We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than most expect. Performances elsewhere in the region will be mixed, but growth will probably accelerate in more economies than it eases. Despite this broadly positive picture, several economies still face key risks. We’ve long highlighted Angola’s overvalued currency and large US dollar debts as very worrying. And while Kenya’s current account position is improving, the country’s balance sheet remains fragile. Across the region as a whole, we think that growth will peak this year before slowing a touch in 2019. Indeed, we think that the consensus view that this year’s strong performance will mark the start of a multi-year acceleration is overly optimistic.