South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing sector suffered a larger-than-expected fall in output in July and, while more timely data point to a rebound in activity, the weakness in July has increased the chances that the economy contracts over Q3 as a whole.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary policy gradually. By contrast, investors currently appear to expect a relatively aggressive tightening cycle.

20 October 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict

Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that key officials backing the existing currency arrangements are also shifting tack. In South Africa, ongoing industrial action in the steel industry will probably dampen manufacturing output in Q4, in another hit to the recovery in the sector and the wider economy. Finally, escalating tensions in Ethiopia raise the spectre of more severe strains in the balance of payments.

15 October 2021

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery.

15 October 2021

More from Jason Tuvey

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q2)

South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at the start of Q3 and the recovery is likely to be slow going from here on. This, combined with subdued inflation, means that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates later than most currently expect.

7 September 2021

Middle East Economics Weekly

OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight

This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further. Meanwhile, the further fall in virus cases in the UAE in recent weeks has prompted officials to ease restrictions as the start of the World Expo nears, but the past week has also brought a reminder that Dubai’s troubles with its large corporate debts are far from over.

2 September 2021

Middle East Economics Update

Morocco’s recovery to surprise on the upside

Morocco’s strong vaccine rollout and a rebound in the agricultural sector will support a robust recovery over the coming quarters. Although a slow return of tourists and fiscal consolidation will act as headwinds, we still think that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over 2021-23.

2 September 2021
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