Asia Economics Update Vietnam seems to be riding the tariff wave again Early signs are that Vietnam is doing well as US buyers look to find alternative suppliers outside China. 6th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: shrugging off the trade war (for now) Data published for Korea from the past few days suggests the economy remains weak, but that the trade war so far appears to be having a minimal impact. While exports to the US fell, the declines were... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Trump: What to expect in the second 100 days President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office has been characterised by radical changes to trade policy, immigration and the Federal government, all implemented by an unprecedented use of... 29th April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reality bites for Trump on tariffs and the Fed The negative reaction in financial markets undoubtedly played a key role in making President Trump reconsider his eye-wateringly high tariffs on China and his ill-advised plans to fire Fed Chair... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Focus Rumours of the dollar’s demise: still mostly exaggerated? The sharp fall in the dollar over the past three months can for the most part be explained by a rapid reassessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, rather than an imminent... 25th April 2025 · 19 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Taking a stand against the US President Trump wants to cut a deal with China so that he can claim victory and roll back some tariffs. But China’s leaders aren’t playing ball. They are considering tariff exemptions for certain... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Can’t get no (further) relief Despite further encouraging headlines on tariff reduction, a relief rally in Asian markets trading today has been notable by its absence. This reinforces our view that further gains in equity markets... 24th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Firing Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's end If President Donald Trump does fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, we suspect that the initial market reaction might not be disastrous, as long as Trump quickly lines up a relatively-qualified replacement... 21st April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in Bunds and euro has run its course Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing... 16th April 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tariffs and the future of EM friendshoring The extremely high US import tariffs imposed on China will likely strengthen the forces that have driven multinational corporates to shift production for the US market away from China and towards... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus Trump pushes the dollar through the looking glass; what next? The ongoing fallout across financial markets from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement has resulted in a sharp fall in the dollar and what looks increasingly like a generalised loss of... 15th April 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Is the worst in markets over? The market turmoil sparked by the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on “Liberation day” has somewhat eased in the past couple of trading days. Absent further bad news, we think the worst... 14th April 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus Is China offloading its dollar assets? Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market. But China’s state managers of foreign assets still... 14th April 2025 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump folds first hand, doubles down on second As we suggested in our Update from last weekend, it was only a matter of time before the increasingly adverse market reaction forced President Donald Trump to reconsider his plan to levy prohibitive... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
