Asia Economics Weekly From tariffs to troops: what Trump means for Taiwan The focus of Trump’s tariff measures may soon extend beyond China, Mexico, and Canada, with Taiwan emerging as a likely target due to its large trade surplus with the US. While potential reciprocal... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who will be the next Vietnam? Vietnam has seen a surge in exports to the US in recent years and arguably emerged as the biggest winner of Trump’s first trade war with China. However, Vietnam’s huge bilateral trade surplus with the... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump gives one-month reprieve on Canada & Mexico auto tariffs President Donald Trump's decision to grant a one-month exemption to the Big Three Automakers (Ford, GM & Stellantis) is something of a disappointment given the earlier heavy hints from his Commerce... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implications 1741100400 Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing all about the latest tariff announcements from the White House, their macro and market implications, and what comes n
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with more tariffs President Donald Trump’s has claimed that there is “no room left’ for Canada and Mexico to avoid the imposition of 25% across-the-board tariffs at midnight tonight and he has reportedly signed a... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Seven points on the UK-US trade deal The "economic" trade deal that Starmer and Trump talked about at the White House this week may mean the UK avoids any new tariffs on its exports to the US. But since we didn't think such tariffs would... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the “Trump trade” already over? Notwithstanding recent setbacks, we continue to think that this year will see a major rally in US equity markets, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. 27th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump turns the screw on tariffs One month after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump continues to issue new tariff threats, this week taking aim at imports of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
