Global Economics Rapid Response Trump folds on tariffs under market pressure Although President Donald Trump was able to resist the stock market sell-off, once the bond market began to weaken too, it was only a matter of time before he folded on his eye-wateringly high tariffs... 9th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects 9th April 2025, 2:30PM BST China’s additional retaliatory tariff of 50% on US imports marks another worrying escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Emerging Markets Economics Update Small, low-income EMs bearing the brunt of Trump 2.0 President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are particularly high on some of the lowest-income EMs, which are also among the most vulnerable to the suspension of US aid flows. That raises the risk of balance... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Vietnam do a deal with Trump? Vietnam is pulling out all of the stops to secure concessions from Donald Trump. If the tariffs remain in place, the hit to Vietnam’s economy would be severe and would prompt a sharp cut to our GDP... 8th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: What Trump’s tariffs mean for Asian economies and markets 10th April 2025, 8:00AM BST The escalation of tariffs by the US and China now threatens to rupture the flow of trade between the world’s two largest economies.
Global Economics Update Trump shock: What to expect next on tariffs Clinton adviser James Carville famously quipped that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market but, as President Donald Trump is now finding out, the equity market can be pretty intimidating... 6th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Estimating the shock to growth in Asia Economies in Asia have been hit with many of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs. The resulting fall in US demand could plausibly knock over 1% off GDP in several Asian economies over the coming year... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China hits back, hard China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market’s response 4th April 2025, 2:30PM BST With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this s
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities escape firing line, but caught in crossfire The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: MENA and the Trump trade war, Saudi balance of payments President Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday evening mean that much of the Middle East and North Africa is subject to a 10% tariff, although Jordan is more vulnerable given its greater... 3rd April 2025 · 8 mins read
