Bonds Update Trump’s tariffs a headwind for EM debt We doubt that Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff threat, nor his broader protectionist agenda, are priced in markets fully. We expect US Treasury yields and the dollar to edge up as these tariffs come... 18th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff threats mount on multiple fronts Even if the 25% tariff on all goods scheduled for March 4th is postponed again, Canada is still set to face the same tariff on steel and aluminum exports to the US just weeks later. Added to that... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: US reciprocal tariffs will be a big deal After a hot CPI report this week and a not-so-hot PPI report (at least not in the components that count) we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price measure increased by 0.28% m/m in January... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Is Trump’s love for tariffs really reciprocal in markets? US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pursue imposing reciprocal tariffs triggered rallies in bond and equity markets, but we would be surprised if investors were really enthusiastic... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will be hit hardest by Trump’s latest tariff threats? President Trump looks to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10%-20% on all imports to the US, and now appears to be favouring new reciprocal tariffs that will be imposed on... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Reciprocal tariffs underscore Trump threat for China China is among a minority of countries that apply lower tariff rates on the US than vice versa, so it is not as obviously exposed to reciprocal tariffs as many others. But President Trump’s latest... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump's reciprocal tariffs a bigger deal than universal measure President Trump appears to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10% or 20% on imports from all other countries. But the broad criteria that will be used to assess his new... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in... 13th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China adds to export controls in a bid to pressure US China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market able to withstand D.C. shakeup Due to the relatively small size of the federal workforce and the large number of exempt positions, the federal government hiring freeze should have only a modest impact on payroll employment. More... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025) Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The art of the deal While President Donald Trump’s U-turn on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico serves as a good reminder that he is always open to cutting a deal, be careful writing tariffs off altogether. China came... 7th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
