FX Markets Focus Rumours of the dollar’s demise: still mostly exaggerated? The sharp fall in the dollar over the past three months can for the most part be explained by a rapid reassessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, rather than an imminent... 25th April 2025 · 19 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Taking a stand against the US President Trump wants to cut a deal with China so that he can claim victory and roll back some tariffs. But China’s leaders aren’t playing ball. They are considering tariff exemptions for certain... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Can’t get no (further) relief Despite further encouraging headlines on tariff reduction, a relief rally in Asian markets trading today has been notable by its absence. This reinforces our view that further gains in equity markets... 24th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Firing Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's end If President Donald Trump does fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, we suspect that the initial market reaction might not be disastrous, as long as Trump quickly lines up a relatively-qualified replacement... 21st April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in Bunds and euro has run its course Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing... 16th April 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tariffs and the future of EM friendshoring The extremely high US import tariffs imposed on China will likely strengthen the forces that have driven multinational corporates to shift production for the US market away from China and towards... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus Trump pushes the dollar through the looking glass; what next? The ongoing fallout across financial markets from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement has resulted in a sharp fall in the dollar and what looks increasingly like a generalised loss of... 15th April 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Is the worst in markets over? The market turmoil sparked by the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on “Liberation day” has somewhat eased in the past couple of trading days. Absent further bad news, we think the worst... 14th April 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus Is China offloading its dollar assets? Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market. But China’s state managers of foreign assets still... 14th April 2025 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump folds first hand, doubles down on second As we suggested in our Update from last weekend, it was only a matter of time before the increasingly adverse market reaction forced President Donald Trump to reconsider his plan to levy prohibitive... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Risks tilting towards weaker GDP and faster falls in inflation The extraordinary tariff chaos over the past week and associated fallout in the financial markets have increased the chances that the damage to the UK from the US trade war will be larger and that... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China and US still in an escalatory loop The fact that the Chinese authorities have once again matched US tariff hikes suggests that they are in no rush to negotiate with the Trump administration. They’ve said that they won’t hike tariffs... 11th April 2025 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: More Apple pie, with a side of pragmatism Apple's reported decision to increase production of iPhones in India to export to the US is an example of how the country is well placed to benefit from the escalating trade war. But at the same time... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices? President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external... 10th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Risks tilted towards faster falls in UK inflation and interest rates Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime for 90 days, there is still a real risk that the second-order effects of higher US tariffs on the UK economy are... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
