UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Risks tilting towards weaker GDP and faster falls in inflation The extraordinary tariff chaos over the past week and associated fallout in the financial markets have increased the chances that the damage to the UK from the US trade war will be larger and that... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China and US still in an escalatory loop The fact that the Chinese authorities have once again matched US tariff hikes suggests that they are in no rush to negotiate with the Trump administration. They’ve said that they won’t hike tariffs... 11th April 2025 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: More Apple pie, with a side of pragmatism Apple's reported decision to increase production of iPhones in India to export to the US is an example of how the country is well placed to benefit from the escalating trade war. But at the same time... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices? President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external... 10th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Risks tilted towards faster falls in UK inflation and interest rates Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime for 90 days, there is still a real risk that the second-order effects of higher US tariffs on the UK economy are... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Trump and Africa: the story so far The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices... 10th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Trump folds on tariffs under market pressure Although President Donald Trump was able to resist the stock market sell-off, once the bond market began to weaken too, it was only a matter of time before he folded on his eye-wateringly high tariffs... 9th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Small, low-income EMs bearing the brunt of Trump 2.0 President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are particularly high on some of the lowest-income EMs, which are also among the most vulnerable to the suspension of US aid flows. That raises the risk of balance... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Vietnam do a deal with Trump? Vietnam is pulling out all of the stops to secure concessions from Donald Trump. If the tariffs remain in place, the hit to Vietnam’s economy would be severe and would prompt a sharp cut to our GDP... 8th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump shock: What to expect next on tariffs Clinton adviser James Carville famously quipped that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market but, as President Donald Trump is now finding out, the equity market can be pretty intimidating... 6th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Estimating the shock to growth in Asia Economies in Asia have been hit with many of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs. The resulting fall in US demand could plausibly knock over 1% off GDP in several Asian economies over the coming year... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China hits back, hard China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
