US Economics Update Integrity of economic data safe for now President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner marks another troubling step in his administration’s pressure campaign against Federal institutions. Still, we think a... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Can India wean itself off Russian oil? India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: The new US tariff landscape, fiscal constraints The new reciprocal tariff rates mean that Chinese exports will become more competitive in the US. But planned duties on transhipped goods are a threat, albeit a less serious one than some think... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response Trump’s 25% tariff on India may not be the end point The 25% tariff that President Trump has announced will be applied to imports from India starting Friday would undermine India’s attractiveness as an alternative manufacturing hub to China, if it... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: New trade deals shed light on final tariff landscape With the EU reportedly close to striking a trade deal similar to the one officials agreed with Japan this week, the final tariff landscape is becoming clearer. Both appear to have settled on a 15%... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Mega-dam won’t power the economy, trade talks resume While the start of work on China's colossal new hydropower project in Tibet sent infrastructure stocks surging this week, construction won't do much to boost the economy. Meanwhile, US-China trade... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Focus Tariff impact on inflation slowly building Up to now there has been only limited passthrough from tariffs into final consumer prices, but we still expect the impact to gradually mount in the second half of this year. Many retailers appear to... 25th July 2025 · 12 mins read
US Economics Focus Tariffs will not fix decades-long manufacturing decline The past three administrations have all attempted and failed to reshore lost manufacturing jobs and we expect the latest effort, with Trump expanding use of tariffs in his second term, to be no... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Warmer US-China relations, foreigners staying away US-China relations are warming, with growing talk of a Xi-Trump summit and gestures of goodwill on both sides. Further de-escalation, including cooperation on fentanyl, could pave the way to a Phase... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the US–Asia trade map being redrawn? 29th July 2025, 9:00AM BST President Trump’s flurry of new trade deals with Asian economies is starting to reshape the region’s trade architecture.
Event Drop-In: Tariffs state of play - Assessing the global economic implications 28th July 2025, 3:00PM BST With President Trump’s 1st August deadline for high “reciprocal” tariffs fast approaching, recent weeks have seen a flurry of deals around the world.
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Tariff Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Based on the tariffs that are currently in place, the average US tariff rate is now about 15%, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Recent letters sent to US trade partners threaten to hike reciprocal tariff... 16th July 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
