US Economics Weekly CIT ruling only a minor setback for the administration The federal court ruling this week that the administration unlawfully imposed the 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1974 is only a minor setback for Trump’s tariff... 8th May 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trump-Xi summit will buy time, not resolve differences Next week's summit between Xi and Trump seems unlikely to deliver much beyond a continuation of the existing truce, although a shift in US language on Taiwan in exchange for pressure on Iran or large... 8th May 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Section 122 Tariff Ruling The narrow Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against the Trump administration’s 10% Section 122 tariffs does not have any immediate implications for the US effective tariff rate, but it raises... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing yet to find its stride The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with production down in March and little changed over the past year. However, tentative signs that foreign producers are investing to expand their US... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New tariffs, Mexico’s World Cup fears, Brazil GDP Brazil has seen one of the largest falls in the tariff rate applied by the US after the Supreme Court over-turned IEEPA tariffs, but it's to unlikely to have a major impact on exports. For Mexico... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The average tariff rate will decline following the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling, but not by enough to materially change the near-term outlook for the economy. That hinges on AI-related investment and... 26th February 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s tariff respite may last some time The past week’s shifts in US tariffs have put a large number of Chinese manufacturers back on a level playing field in the US market with other non-US producers. These lower rates look likely to... 26th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update New US tariff regime will rejig Asian electronics trade Trump’s new 15% global tariff rate reduces the tariff burden on most Asian countries, but the biggest winner is China. It still faces a higher tariff than countries elsewhere in the region, but the... 23rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Trump hikes new global tariff rate to 15% In a social media post this morning, President Trump announced that he intends to raise his new global tariff rate from the 10% rate announced yesterday, to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122... 21st February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Trump imposes alternative 10% global tariff under Section 122 In a hastily-arranged press conference to respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling that his IEEPA-related reciprocal tariffs were illegal, President Trump has announced that he will instead be imposing a... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade reorientation away from US has a distance to go Today’s ruling that Donald Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs was illegal will not deter policymakers in Ottawa from continuing to prioritise the reorientation of trade flows toward other markets, with... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly IEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2% The price data this week made for grim reading for the Fed, implying that core PCE inflation rose above 3% last month. The Supreme Court's tariff ruling could help to bring down goods prices in the... 20th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response SC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal In a 6-3 vote, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump was wrong to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a justification for imposing his far-reaching reciprocal tariffs... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to slow down Trump The Republicans are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, but that won’t slow down the President, with Donald Trump continuing to pursue... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Wait for the SCOTUS tariff ruling continues The wait continues for the Supreme Court’s judgement on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-invoked tariffs. If those tariffs are ruled to be illegal, we think Trump will be able to replace a lot... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
