India Economics Update Is the trade deficit becoming a cause for concern? The further widening in India’s merchandise trade deficit last month is likely to heighten concerns over the external position, particularly amid the broader deterioration in market sentiment towards... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, but the recent market turmoil suggests that the pace of outflows probably accelerated again in August. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Turkey parallels The falling rand has, yet again, highlighted the currency’s vulnerability to EM risk sentiment. From an economic perspective, however, the country’s situation is very different from Turkey’s building... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the crisis in Turkey mean for Asia? There is a good chance that the recent volatility in financial markets triggered by the crisis in Turkey will prompt Bank Indonesia into hiking interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday. For most... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 0.1% is the new 0% The Bank of Japan’s decision to allow JGB yields to deviate by 0.2 percentage points rather than 0.1 percentage points from its 0% target suggests that long-term bond yields will settle at a slightly... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy resilient, but “no-deal” Brexit fears grow Our central scenario envisages a smooth departure from the EU on 29th March 2019. But that outcome is far from certain. And although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no deal... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Saudi storm won’t cause economic damage The sudden escalation in political tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia this week seems alarming, but investors are right not to fret about the consequences. After all, Canada sends just 0.2% of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Graft scandal rattles Argentine markets The Turkish lira may have surpassed the Argentine peso as the worst performing EM currency this year, but Argentine markets have still had a rough week. The lesson from other parts of Latin America is... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Turkey’s crisis affect other EMs? Aside from the impact on a few small neighbouring countries, most notably Bulgaria, the direct risk of contagion from Turkey’s crisis to other EMs is fairly low. However, Turkey’s problems may add to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q2) The GDP figures confirmed that the economy bounced back after the weak start to the year and will reassure the Monetary Policy Committee that it was right to raise interest rates last week. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports shrug off tariffs, but worrying signs ahead Early signs suggest that the first round of Washington’s tariffs on China had little effect on EM trade in July. Growing headwinds, however, suggest that export growth will slow in late 2018 and into... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Free trade with the US: opportunity or threat? The accord between Presidents Trump and Juncker to aim for free US/EU trade in non-auto industrial goods poses a minor threat to some EU sectors, including chemicals and plastics. But existing tariffs... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-Canada spat, Iran sanctioned The diplomatic spat that erupted between Saudi Arabia and Canada this week should have little economic impact, but it does risk undermining investor confidence in Saudi Arabia at a time when the... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions and the importance of balance sheets The fact that the US sanctions (or the threat of) are having a bigger impact on financial markets in Turkey than Russia reflects the latter’s much stronger balance sheets as well as the credibility of... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Assessing the impact of a trade war on the UK The macroeconomic impact on the UK of the tariffs which the US has already imposed on the EU and of the retaliatory tariffs which the EU has imposed on the US, will be trivial. The threat of... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s imports unlikely to be sustained China’s commodity import volumes revived in July, but from a low base a month earlier. Indeed, we think import volumes will fall back in the coming months in line with the slowdown in economic... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
