UK Economics Chart Pack Rising inflation starting to hit households Resilient consumer spending was the main reason why GDP growth held up so well in the wake of the Brexit vote. However, there have been signs that the exchange-rate induced rise in inflation is... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth firming, but downside risks abound The recent upturn in production activity and business confidence are encouraging signs for near-term growth prospects. There are still some big question marks, however. While first-quarter real GDP... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of higher costs will firms absorb? Companies’ margins are starting to bear the brunt of the exchange-rate induced rise in costs. And given the deterioration in consumer confidence, slower employment growth and the strong competitive... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The sharp drop in the trade surplus in January suggests that net exports will provide a sizeable drag on growth in the current quarter. And while rising consumption goods imports suggest that the... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The decent rebound in real GDP in the fourth quarter doesn’t just dash any lingering fears that Australia was in a recession, but it also boosts hopes that the surge in commodity prices will trigger a... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tweaking US trade deficits no concern to Canada The potential changes to US trade balance statistics being considered by the US administration has raised eyebrows in Canada. But no matter how Trump’s administration wants to tweak the data, the US... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Some encouraging signs? The latest data suggest that global trade growth picked up at the end of last year and business surveys suggest that it remained strong in January. What’s more, President Trump may be beginning to row... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What next for Japan’s free trade agreements? With the writing on the wall for the TPP, Japan’s government believes that its next best bet would be a bilateral deal with the US. In principle, this could generate sizeable benefits by opening Japan... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: about that trade surplus with the US… Changes to US trade statistics that are apparently being considered by the Trump administration would double Mexico’s trade surplus with the US as reported by the US Census Bureau, from $60bn to... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack A bad month for Indonesia A number of developments over the past month have cast a shadow over Indonesia’s prospects. The first was the publication of GDP figures for the final quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New trade balance calculation would make little sense The changes to the official trade statistics apparently being considered by the Trump administration may bolster the case for renegotiating trade deals, but they would give a distorted picture of... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Recent data provide further evidence that China’s moves to tighten capital controls are having an effect. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey added to the evidence that the manufacturing sector is getting back onto its feet. This should help prevent GDP growth from losing too much momentum in the... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jan.) The tailwind from rising export prices was offset by a drop in export volumes in January. By contrast, import volumes recorded the strongest increase since mid-2014. 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
