Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA on the brink Canada has a strong hand to play in the upcoming negotiations over the NAFTA agreement. With Canadian-US trade broadly balanced and the US reliant on Canadian energy exports, we suspect that the Trump... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still in cross-hairs over trade China’s current account surplus is no longer unusually large. But its surplus in traded goods is substantial, particularly relative to the size of the global economy, and the bilateral imbalance with... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly NAFTA in the firing line President Donald Trump sees the renegotiation of NAFTA as an opportunity to close the trade deficit with Mexico and return manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s possible that he could gain modest... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Trump wreak havoc on Japan’s exporters? President Trump has threatened to impose a tariff on Mexican and Chinese imports, which wouldn’t create insurmountable challenges for Japanese firms producing cars and other products in these... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s current account surplus is a sign of weakness Large current account surpluses are sometimes a sign of economic strength. In the case of Thailand, however, where the surplus is over 10% of GDP, it is a symptom of a deeply depressed economy. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) China’s moves to tighten capital controls are seeing some success. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August thanks to a sharp pull-back in outbound... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor American carnage? The pick-up in world trade in the last quarter of 2016 adds to the evidence that the global economy gained momentum late last year. But the key question is whether the new US administration will bring... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the renegotiation of NAFTA: five key points President Trump’s intention to renegotiate NAFTA won’t have any immediate consequences for Mexico’s economy since the current agreement will remain in place until a reformed version is approved by all... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Dec.) The first rise in export values in more than a year reflects a combination of soaring export volumes and the recent depreciation of the yen. However, a weaker exchange rate tends to lift import prices... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a blow is the demise of the TPP to Asia? The demise of the TPP represents a major blow to some countries in Emerging Asia, most notably Vietnam. The benefits of any China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will a Trump presidency mean for Asia? There remains a great deal of uncertainty over what a Trump presidency will mean for the US economy, let alone Asia. This Weekly looks at the key channels through which a Trump presidency will affect... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Near-term recovery for EM export growth, but threats ahead EM export growth increased towards the end of 2016, but this was mainly due to base effects rather than strengthening demand. While a further pick-up is likely in the near term, EM export growth is... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
