Latin America Economics Focus Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake? Mexico has more to lose than the US from the renegotiation of NAFTA, but there are a number of changes that could be made with little economic impact and the government does have some bargaining power... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Korea’s exports offset domestic demand weakness? The sharp turnaround in Korea’s headline export growth in recent months owes more to a rebound in commodity price inflation than a recovery in underlying demand. Looking ahead, a combination of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Aggregate Emerging Market net capital outflows slowed sharply in January. This appears to be partially due to large – but temporary – inflows into the Czech Republic. But it also reflected the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues Trade data for January show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s long-term target still looks out of reach... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus widened somewhat in December, and, as a result, was virtually unchanged over Q4 as a whole. Looking ahead, while surveys suggest that export growth may pick up from... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: promising noises on trade, but structural hurdles persist While Brazil’s government is talking a good game on trade, the reality remains that the economy is among the most closed in the world. This is due in large part to structural problems that previous... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Strong start to the year for big EM exporters EM exports appear to have made a good start to the year, with shipments from China, Brazil and Korea all growing strongly in dollar terms in January. The recent improvement in EM exports hasn’t just... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s worries over Trump fade China’s relationship with the US has so far been less fraught than had seemed likely immediately after President Trump’s election victory. Tensions are likely to flare up at some point but the most... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) Today’s economic activity data added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a significant amount of momentum at the end of 2016 and implies that GDP growth is becoming more balanced. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Headline trade growth jumped in January. Seasonal factors played a large part but underlying demand also appears to have strengthened. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown The plunge in Mexican consumer confidence to a record low in January has raised concerns that a much more severe economic slowdown than we currently expect is underway. But it remains to be seen if... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which countries are most exposed to US protectionism? Germany, Belgium and particularly Ireland are the euro-zone members most exposed to US protectionism, while Portugal and the other peripheral euro-zone economies are the least exposed. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The marginal decline in the nominal trade deficit in December was broadly in line with expectations and confirms that net trade was a big drag on fourth-quarter GDP. But that fourth-quarter drag was... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
