Global Economics Update Reconsidering the threat to global trade from Trump On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, we still have little detail on what trade policies he will pursue. Here we set out the potential global impact of the various measures he and his team have... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack External sector won’t fuel a rapid rebound The Australian economy has started to reap some benefits from the rise in key commodity prices towards the end of last year. Most obviously, the trade balance has swung into surplus for the first... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi balance of payments position to continue to improve The latest data show that Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments position improved markedly towards the end of 2016 and, with oil prices likely to grind higher this year, this trend looks set to continue... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No float for the renminbi China will need to let the renminbi float at some stage if it intends to push ahead with plans to liberalise the capital account and encourage greater international use of the currency. But, recent... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Total capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) remained large at the end of last year. Portfolio inflows into EM bond and equity markets, however, remained resilient following the US election... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus widened in November, but over Q4 as a whole it was probably broadly unchanged from Q3. Looking ahead, export growth might pick up, but we doubt that it will be... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed significantly in December, and a number of factors should ensure that it remains in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bumpy ride for sterling The pound has suffered another bumpy ride this week, as concerns about the economic impact of a “hard Brexit” have lingered. That said, some of the positive impacts of the lower exchange rate were... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports hit new records in 2016 China’s commodity import volumes remained high in December, corroborating data showing a pick-up in activity in the final months of 2016. However, the strength of imports cannot be attributed solely... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) A strong end to the year for global manufacturing failed to prevent a decline in Chinese trade growth last month. 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation close to bottoming out Inflation fell to fresh lows at the end of 2016, with the Bank of Japan’s favourite measure of underlying inflation turning negative in the Tokyo region on our estimates. What’s more, there are few... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Nov.) The latest deluge of economic data as part of the ONS’ new “Theme Days” added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a decent amount of momentum in the fourth quarter, and that... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to panic about the pound While the latest fall in the pound could potentially push inflation higher than otherwise, it should strengthen the already considerable beneficial effects of a weaker currency too. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
