Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December’s trade report confirmed that, even with the benefit of a weaker Canadian dollar, export volumes barely grew last year, which is further evidence of the structural competitiveness challenges... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves are now worth less than $3trn for the first time since 2011. That said, they remain sufficiently large not to warrant any immediate concerns over the sustainability... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production is unlikely to be a sign of things to come, but it does suggest that the economy entered 2017 on a slightly weaker footing than the surveys have implied... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem The public spat between Donald Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto over who will pay for the proposed border wall has led to some speculation that the US could impose a tax on remittance flows to... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Post-Brexit momentum maintained at the start of 2017 Following a strong end to 2016, the economy appears to have carried a decent amount of momentum over into 2017. Despite a slight fall in the Markit/CIPS all-sector PMI in January, it is still at a... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty Incoming data indicate that the economy has emerged from the oil price shock, with encouraging signs in business confidence pointing to faster economic growth over the next six months. As things stand... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Where do the risks to the MPC’s forecasts lie? Last week’s Inflation Report saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seemingly abandon “Project Fear” in favour of “Project Optimism”. Indeed, the MPC seemed upbeat on growth prospects and relaxed... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The anatomy of the record trade surplus The roots of the swing in Australia’s international trade balance from a record deficit at the end of 2015 to a record surplus in December 2016 lie firmly in the huge rise in commodity prices rather... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trump’s “America first” policy poses threat to Philippines China and Mexico were the main focus of Donald Trump’s protectionist threats on the campaign trail. But the Philippines also stands out as vulnerable to any moves by the US towards isolationism. In... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The real question for Mexico is: why have Nafta gains been so small? According to President Trump, Mexico is “beating the US badly on trade” and a big part of the reason is Nafta. In truth, however, the real question is not why Mexico has benefited so much from Nafta... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Dec.) The surge in the trade surplus to a record high in December shows that the rise in commodity prices is boosting the economy and it has dramatically reduced the chances that Australia fell into a... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How bad will the fallout be from a US border tax? If the US introduces an across-the-board tariff or border adjustment tax, world trade would not com to a standstill. We suspect that other governments would tread carefully before ratcheting up a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Trump-Mexico relations off to a rocky start Relations between President Trump and Mexico have got off to an inauspicious start, with spats over the renegotiation of NAFTA, border taxes and, of course, the Wall. From the point of view of Mexico... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
