UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) The slight fall in the manufacturing PMI in March suggests that the sector saw a modest slowdown in the first quarter. But the bigger picture is that the sector is still performing well by recent... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US appears to soften stance on NAFTA, but long road ahead A leaked copy of a notification letter from the Trump administration to Congress suggests that its plans for renegotiating NAFTA are more consistent with the idea of creating a “North American... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The latest Quarterly National Accounts highlighted that the economy as a whole expanded at a solid pace at the end of last year, although at first glance it raises some questions about the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The economic consequences of Cyclone Debbie The recent damage caused by Cyclone Debbie is clearly devastating for those households and businesses in Queensland that have been most affected. And it will leave a fairly large dent in Queensland’s... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Retail Sales, Trade and PPI (Feb.) While today’s data suggests that Swedish growth may have slowed in Q1, it still looks set to be strong. And as PPI inflation remains high, inflationary pressures appear to be rising and we expect the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor The world trade recovery continues in Q1 The latest data suggest that the recovery in world trade which appeared to take hold at the end of last year has continued in 2017. What’s more, the immediate outlook seems reasonably bright, with... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data suggest low external vulnerabilities While there was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q4, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Feb.) A large jump in exports in February resulted in the highest trade surplus since 2010. The upshot is that net trade should have continued to support growth this quarter. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs pick up the free-trade mantle? There is growing speculation that the largest EMs might step up to fill the void left by the US in the event of a protectionist shift under President Trump. However, there are good reasons why intra... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Korea-US free-trade agreement survive Trump? The risk that the US may seek to renegotiate or even pull out from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is a big concern for Korean exporters. However, there are reasons to think the US may... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
