Global Trade Monitor A strong end to a strong quarter for world trade The CPB’s latest figures confirm what other indicators had suggested – that world trade experienced fairly rapid growth in Q1. And the signs are that this momentum has spilled over into Q2, albeit at... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) After a sharp decline at the start of the year, net capital outflows have crept up again recently. Unless we witness another misstep on exchange rate policy though, outflow pressure should remain... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Another obstacle cleared on road to GST The consensus reached between India’s national and state governments on how different products will be dealt with under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) The further pick-up in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in March means it is now consistent with the 0.4% q/q increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter being followed by a much more respectable rise of... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Apr.) The trade surplus fell to a fresh low in April which suggests that net trade should have provided less support to economic activity in the second quarter. But the bigger picture is that external... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), Trade (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) The second estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery maintained a decent pace, and growth is set to pick up further. But with inflation pressures subdued, we doubt that the ECB will... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit not a cause for concern India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in over two years in April. But this was in large part due to temporary factors. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The return of Goldilocks Japan’s economy probably recorded the fifth straight quarter of growth in Q1, the longest streak since 2005. The unemployment rate is at multi-year lows and corporate profit margins at record highs... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.) Today’s activity data re-affirmed that the economy lost some momentum in Q1 but showed some signs that GDP growth is becoming slightly better balanced. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove more difficult Recent measures to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far. But the government may now... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK? Emmanual Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election is potentially good news for the UK economy and might also provide the best background for the Brexit negotiations. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth reaching its peak EM export growth reached a 5-year high in March, rounding off a strong quarter. We expect this is probably the peak but a healthy global environment means that the EM export recovery is likely to slow... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) Despite declining, German industrial production remained at a high level in March and grew strongly in Q1 overall. Other German hard data have been weaker, but surveys imply that GDP growth was strong... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Chinese trade is still growing rapidly but shipments are beginning to slow, with cooling domestic demand weighing on imports. Meanwhile, capital outflows are edging up again despite the recent rise in... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Although export volumes grew by 2.3% m/m in March, that followed a big decline the month before, with exports increasing only trivially in the first quarter as a whole. This poor export performance... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
