Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar.) The international trade surplus is well past its peak and will probably continue to fall in the coming months. What’s more, the nominal surplus in the first quarter won’t prevent net exports from... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Softwood lumber dispute isn’t start of potential trade war The decision by the US Commerce Department to impose preliminary import duties of close to 20% on Canadian softwood lumber isn’t a big surprise to domestic producers, nor will it seriously threaten... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Real wages squeezed by rising price of essentials The rise in inflation in Australia in the first quarter was good news as it suggests the period of very low inflation is now over. But it is also bad news as it means prices are now rising faster than... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction likely to slow again as property sales cool After falling for years, construction growth in China has stabilised since the start of 2016, supported by a rise in home sales. Dire warnings of developers collapsing have not materialised. But it is... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the US about to withdraw from NAFTA? Only a few weeks after the Treasury passed up the chance to label China a currency manipulator, a new report from Politico suggests that the White House is close to finalising an Executive Order on... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade momentum carries over into Q2 Although the CPB’s latest figures suggest that world trade volumes fell in February, these estimates are often subject to hefty revisions, and the three-month average growth rate remains quite... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex rises to record highs Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early April. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) indicates that the slowdown in GDP growth at the end of last year was temporary. In fact, February’s NZAP is consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth, from 0.4% q... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A solid first quarter for EM exports EM export growth softened a little in February but we think this was due in large part to one-offs, including the timing of the Chinese New Year and the effects of 2016’s leap year dropping out of the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines – current account deficit no cause for alarm A sharp fall in the Philippines’ current account surplus is fueling fears that the economy is overheating. We think such fears are overdone. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The manufacturing PMI remained at a high level in April and suggests that the sector had a strong start to the second quarter. What’s more, there are mounting signs that price pressures are... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics dominates the headlines but market impact limited The escalation of political risks has dominated the headlines in EMs in recent weeks, but the fallout in financial markets has been surprisingly small. Equities in Russia and South Korea initially... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Mar.) Export values slumped in March as distortions related to the Lunar New Year unwound. Nonetheless, we still expect net exports to provide another boost to Q1 GDP growth. 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) & Inflation (Final, Mar.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in February but probably narrowed in Q1 as a whole. With higher energy prices explaining much of that narrowing, trade volumes may still have boosted GDP in Q1... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack KORUS renegotiation on the cards Confirmation that the US is seeking to renegotiate but not scrap the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is the latest sign that President Trump’s bark, at least when it comes to trade, is turning... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
