Global Trade Monitor World trade still doing well in Q2 Although the latest CPB data suggest that global trade growth slipped at the start of the second quarter, we doubt that this marks the start of a sustained downturn. Indeed, more timely evidence... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe enters Brexit talks on a strong footing As official negotiations about Britain’s exit from the European Union began this week, the remaining member states appeared to be in a robust position. The euro-zone economy, in particular, is still... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly All Blacks to beat British Lions in economic tests If the relative performance of the economies of New Zealand and the UK/Ireland over the next few years is anything to go by, the All Blacks will beat the British & Irish Lions 2-1 in the rugby test... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack RBI wields new powers The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started to put to use its new powers to clean up the banking sector. Earlier this month it instructed several commercial banks to begin insolvency proceedings... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM links with China The EMs with the deepest trade ties to China have, unsurprisingly, benefitted most from the economy’s rebound since the start of 2016. These countries lie mostly in Asia. It follows that these are the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) South Africa’s current account deficit widened a touch in Q1, but remained small by recent standards. This will help to shield the rand from the effect of political shocks. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Oil imports to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in two and a half years in May, but we don’t think this is much of a concern. With imports of key commodities such as oil likely to stay in... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (May) Export values didn’t rebound in May while import values edged higher which suggests that net exports turned into a drag on GDP growth in Q2. However, business surveys suggest that external demand... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q1, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains small. In addition, FDI inflows remain strong. Given this, the... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed a touch in April, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. We think that net trade will provide a small boost to GDP growth in 2017. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Consumer revival underway The recovery in Japan’s economy since early last year has mostly been driven by a surge in exports, but Japanese consumers also seem to be joining the party. Consumer spending is on track for another... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Peak has passed for EM export growth Following a five-year high in March, EM export growth lost a little steam going into the second quarter. We expect growth will gradually slow over the coming months. 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Apr.) April’s sharp fall in French industrial production was disappointing in the wake of yesterday’s poor trade data and dims hopes for a strong pick-up in GDP growth in Q2. But German data continue to be... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.) Although all eyes this morning have been on the General Election result, a flurry of UK activity data has also been released, which has cast some doubt on the likely strength of the bounce-back in... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
