Africa Chart Pack Africa: Politics grabs headlines as key economies strengthen Attention this month focused on unfolding political dramas in Africa’s key economies. The president of South Africa narrowly saw off another no-confidence vote, Kenya’s president was re-elected in a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Most EM central banks in easing mode Despite the focus in advanced economies on the timing of monetary policy tightening, the majority of EMs remain in easing mode. More EM central banks cut their policy interest rates than raised them... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth in Q2 was mainly due to a rebound in mining production following a strike, and there are continued signs of weakness elsewhere in the economy. This adds to the case... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Malaysia GDP (Q2) Figures released today show that GDP growth in Malyasia unexpectedly accelerated in Q2. However, we expect growth to ease from around 5.5% this year to 4.5% in 2018 as domestic problems continue to... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jul.) The recent acceleration in export values reflects a surge in export prices rather than stronger volumes. Nonetheless, export volumes will probably outpace import volumes this year so net exports will... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in July, and a number of factors should ensure that it remains in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets relatively secure in... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth nudges down in Q2 Emerging market (EM) export growth slowed a touch in Q2 and the early signs are that it weakened a little further at the start of the current quarter. However, the slowdown is very gradual – EM... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The renegotiation of Nafta: a primer Talks to renegotiate Nafta are set to begin on 16th August and look increasingly unlikely to result in major changes that would disrupt Mexico-US trade. Even so, there are still a number of potential... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jun.) Today’s deluge of data from the ONS was a bit of a mixed bag. While the manufacturing sector is still underperforming the surveys, and construction output was weaker than expected, net trade looks to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will exports and investment pick up the baton? While the fall in the pound hasn’t yet boosted net trade, there are signs that the external sector will soon start making positive contributions to GDP growth. The depreciation should also support... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Trade (Jun.) Although German and French exporters struggled in June, the outlook for trade in both countries remains fairly bright amid strong growth in global demand and, despite its recent appreciation, the... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
